Monday, 11 April 2011

Nuclear deaths, revised

This article from The New Matilda estimates Chernobly related deaths at between 15,000 and 60,000 on the basis of  that cancers are linear to exposure and that there is no safe low exposure level as assumed by some of the more extreme positions on the pro-nuclear side:

The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates a total collective dose of 600,000 person-Sieverts over 50 years from Chernobyl fallout (see the IAEA Bulletin, Vol.38, No.1, 1996). A standard risk estimate from the International Commission on Radiological Protection is 0.05 fatal cancers per Sievert. Multiply those figures and we get an estimated 30,000 fatal cancers. Now let’s recall that, according to the BEIR report, the LNT model may overstate risks or understate them by a factor of two. Thus the estimated death toll ranges from something less than 30,000 — up to 60,000.
http://newmatilda.com/2011/04/07/do-we-know-chernobyl-death-toll

This kinda fries the graph I quoted in the previous post.
 

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